Jakarta,- Global coal prices are falling further. The effect of the trade war created by US President Trump raises concerns about a decline in demand for coal amid weakening coal imports from India and China.

On Friday (14/2/2025), world coal prices fell 1.13% at Rp105.10 per tonne. In a week, coal prices have fallen 5.10%. The decline extended the fall in coal prices throughout 2025, which has fallen 17.24%.

Coal prices weakened further after United States (US) President Donald Trump confirmed plans to impose tariffs. China's decision to strengthen coal energy could not even help the black sand.

President Donald Trump ordered his administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on many trade partners. Trump considers the current tariff system unfair to the US.

On Thursday (13/2/2025), Trump signed a presidential memorandum detailing his plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners.

The order will direct the US Trade Representative and Secretary of Commerce to propose new duties on a country-by-country basis in an effort to rebalance trade relations.

It is feared that the tariffs could depress global trade and commodity prices, including coal.

It is also feared that the tariffs could lead China to reduce its demand for coal from the US, resulting in US coal flooding the global market and depressing prices.

In addition, weakening demand from India is the main trigger for coal weakness. Quoted from Reuters.

India's thermal coal imports are expected to fall for the second consecutive year in 2025. Imports are falling due to decreased reliance on coal for power generation, slowing economic activity, and stocks reaching their highest levels.

All six Indian and international coal traders interviewed by Reuters at the Coaltrans India conference in New Delhi expect coal shipments to decline this year.

Three traders expect imports to fall about 10% to about 155 million metric tonnes. Two others forecast a 1-2% decline, while one trader predicted a 7-8% drop.

None of the traders wanted to be identified as they are not authorised to speak to the media.

India is the world's largest importer of coal after China so developments in the country are price-driven.

India's gloomy outlook comes after China also raised concerns about the global coal oversupply.

Data from consultancy Bigmint shows India's power plant coal imports falling by about 2% to 173 million metric tonnes by 2024. Imports fell as surging production by the world's largest coal miner, Coal India (COAL.NS), pushed stockpiles at power plants to record highs.

Increased production by Coal India has helped India reduce its reliance on imports by 5.5 percentage points in a decade to 20.5% by 2024, according to data from Indian coal trading company I-Energy.

The decline in imports was also fuelled by growing demand for petcoke by the cement industry, as the price-sensitive market favoured cheaper alternatives, according to the data.