Jakarta,- A number of coal sector stocks such as ITMG, ADRO and PTBA were observed to strengthen in early trading today, Friday (9/8/2024), stung by an increase in the price of the black gold commodity during the first half of 2024. 

PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) shares strengthened 20 points or 0.77% to IDR 2,610. The share price of the state-owned issuer has strengthened 80 points or 3.16% year to date.  

In addition, PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) shares also recorded an increase of 100 points or 0.39% to Rp25,925. However, since the beginning of the year ITMG shares have corrected 425 points or 1.61%. 

Meanwhile, PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk. (ADRO) shares recorded an increase of 10 points or 0.31% to the level of IDR 3,200. Meanwhile, ADRO has strengthened 700 points or 28.11% year to date.

As is known, the price of coal futures for August 2024 at ICE Newcastle on Friday (9/8/2024) strengthened 0.34% to US$145.5 per ton. 

The coal price has strengthened 6.99% compared to the previous month's trading at US$134.5 per ton. The current contract value has also increased 6.67% from January 2024 trading which was depressed at the level of US$ 117.25 per ton. 

Mirae Asset Sekuritas analyst Rizkia Darmawan in his research wrote that in the first half of 2024, the average Newcastle coal reference price was US$132 per ton. Meanwhile, in June 2024 it was US$133 per ton, down 7% on a monthly basis. 

Going forward, Mirae Sekuritas expects Newcastle coal prices to move sideways in the third quarter of 2024, ranging from US$130-US$140 per ton. Based on historical patterns, Mirae Sekuritas expects coal prices may rise from September as major importers enter the winter season. 

"However, we do not expect a significant price spike due to current trade dynamics," Darmawan wrote. 

In addition, as Indonesia's production ramps up towards the RKAB target of 920 million tons, Mirae Asset Sekuritas sees the potential for supply growth to outpace demand growth, especially from China. Key risks to our price assumptions include rising geopolitical tensions that could affect global energy supply and adverse weather conditions that could disrupt supply and demand. 

Given these factors, Mirae Asset Sekuritas maintains a neutral view on Indonesia's coal sector. However, Mirae Sekuritas favors ADRO stock among the companies in Mirae Sekuritas' coverage.

Sources : market.bisnis.com Aug 09.24